ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
Remember the old pop song lyric: “Everybody loves somebody sometime”? That, in a nutshell, explains the March 3 Democratic primary in the 5th congressional district.
The “Big Four” – John Fritchey and Sara Feigenholtz, both state representatives, County Commissioner Mike Quigley, and Alderman Pat O’Connor (40th) – spent a combined $1,911,485, got a cumulative 37,467 votes, but didn’t generate much “love.” Quigley eked out a victory with 22 percent, to Fritchey’s 17.8 percent, Feigenholtz’ 16.7 percent, and O’Connor’s 11.6 percent.
The eight also-rans – Victor Forys, Paul Bryar, Tom Geohegan, Charlie Wheelan, Jan Donatelli, Cary Capparelli, Frank Annunzio, and Carlos Monteagudo
-- had a core of ardent admirers, but never a realistic chance to win. They raised a combined $1,243,064, and amassed a cumulative 17,412 votes (31.9 percent).
Clearly, somebody loved them. They were more than just clutter.
In the 2008 Democratic primary, turnout was 124,098. Had the “Little 8” been running, they would have been fringe candidates. But 2009 was a primary where people made their choice before going to the polls, not in the polling booth. And that meant money and manpower was less important than motivation.
Fritchey had both money ($605,813) and manpower, and was backed by Democratic organizations in the 32nd, 33rd, 36th, 38th, 43rd, 45th and 47th wards. Feigenholtz had money ($801,244) and gender appeal, and some manpower. Quigley had money ($402,380), no manpower, and a potent message: I detest Todd Stroger, taxes and spending.
The media has hailed Quigley’s triumph as an “earthquake,” an incipient maelstrom of voter anger and disgust. Not true. The result, to use a metaphor, was more akin to a leap off a curb, not a cliff. Of the district’s 350,000 registered voters, turnout was 54,879, or 15.6 percent. Quigley got 12,102 votes, or 3.4 percent of the registered voters, and 22 percent of the turnout.
Of the candidates, Quigley had the most appeal. But the dominant message, from the voters, was: I don’t give a damn.
On the Northwest Side (see adjoining vote chart), Quigley ran third in the 36th Ward, second in the 38th, 39th, 40th, and 45th wards, and first in the 41st, 47th and 32nd wards. In the district’s East End, where liberals predominate, Quigley finished second to Feigenholtz. In the suburbs, Quigley ran fourth, with 13.5 percent.
Fritchey, who tried to posture as a “reformer” while relying on Machine support, was a flop. He finished first in the 36th (30.1 percent) and the 45th (22.9 percent) wards, and second in the 47th Ward (25.3 percent) and his own 32nd Ward (24.1 percent), where he is committeeman. He needed 40 percent in those wards.
Here is a Report Card, grading the campaigns and candidates (on a scale of A to F):
Strategy and message: With Barack Obama ensconced in the White House, and perceived by many voters as America’s “savior,” there was no “demonization” factor in the primary. Nobody could claim that their election was critical to Obama’s success, or necessary to thwart the Republicans or pass the stimulus package.
Feigenholtz’ campaign was all about gender. She figured that over half of the primary voters would be women, and that more than half would vote for her. She and Donatelli were the only women running. Feigenholtz had seven districtwide mailings, all directly targeted to households with female voters, and all addressed only to women. She stressed that her mother was a physician; that she had fought for women’s health issues in Springfield; and that “accessible and affordable health care” would be her Washington priority. Grade: D-minus. Poor choice. Stale message. No motivation. With $787 billion in stimulus spending, and $3.5 trillion in spending projected over the next four years, universal health care is a done deal.
Feigenholtz claimed to have 2,000 donors and 500 workers. She was endorsed by the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), which intervened in a bunch of 2007 city aldermanic elections. Emily’s List, the feminist political action committee, contributed over $300,000. The net result: Zip. Feigenholtz finished third in the 32nd, 39th, 40th and 47th wards, fourth in the 36th, 38th and 45th wards, and fifth in the 41st Ward. She barely beat Quigley in her East End base, and her gender strategy fizzled. If roughly 30,000 women voted in the primary, then only 6,000-8,000 voted for Feigenholtz (who got 9,174 votes) -- barely a quarter of the female vote.
Fritchey emphasized his early opposition to former Governor Rod Blagojevich’s “pay-to-play” antics, and his bill to ban contributions from state contractors. He claimed to be a “reformer,” but was too tentative. He should have proclaimed that: “I stood up to Blagojevich.” Or “I helped Illinois get rid of Blagojevich.” Instead, he touted his “legislative experience.” Grade: D-minus. To disgusted voters, “experience” meant more of the same.
Also, he relied on Democratic precinct captains to deliver his vote, but he failed to articulate a salient message and pre-sell the voters. When workers knocked on doors, people were unimpressed. In the 36th Ward, where his father-in-law Sam Banks is the brother of Bill Banks, the alderman and committeeman, Fritchey got a tepid 1,721 votes (30.1 percent), to Forys’ 1,380 and Quigley’s 769, in a turnout of 5,555. Fritchey should have gotten 4,000 votes in the ward. Likewise, he should have gotten 3,000 votes in the 38th Ward, not 769; and 4,000 votes in the 45th Ward, not 1,544.
Fritchey raised substantial funds from union sources, and was endorsed by the AFL-CIO and the Chicago Teacher’s Union. But they were worthless in delivering any votes.
Forys, a physician, finished fourth, ahead of O’Connor, getting 6,419 votes (11.7 percent). His theme was: “I am a Polish-American. Vote for me.” He raised $322,022, and had six direct-mail pieces to every Polish-surnamed household in the district. Forys ran first in the suburbs, getting 22.6 percent. There is a large Polish-American population in Elmwood Park, River Grove, Schiller Park, Franklin Park and Northlake. In addition, Forys ran first in the 38th Ward, with 25.9 percent (to Fritchey’s 15.2 percent), second in the 36th Ward, and third in the 45th Ward. In the East End, Forys’ vote was negligible. Grade: B.
If there had been 25 candidates, or if the district was just the West End, Forys could have won. He proved that an ethnic appeal to Poles generates votes.
Quigley basically ran against Todd Stroger, the enormously unpopular – in the city’s white areas -- president of the Cook County Board. His theme: Anti-corruption, anti-spending, anti-taxes, anti-incompetence. A county commissioner since 2002, Quigley was the most visible and vocal opponent of Stroger’s sales tax hike and spending increases. As a result, he had high name identification throughout the 5th District, even though his county board district is in the East End. “He’s (Quigley) very well-known,” said Forrest Claypool, a fellow commissioner and anti-Stroger ally. Endorsements by the Chicago Tribune and Sun-Times were very helpful in establishing his image.
Grade: A. Quigley sent out eight direct-mail pieces to every Democratic household, proclaiming himself an “anti-tax” fighter who “stood up to Stroger.” Without a base or army of workers in the West End, sounding like a Republican, and blasting Stroger, not Mayor Rich Daley, Quigley carved an astute voter niche as the anti-establishment, send-a-message candidate.
In the East End, Quigley carried his home 46th Ward with 52.1 percent, but barely edged out Feigenholtz in the 44th Ward (34.6-34.2 percent) and 43rd Ward (27.3-25.4 percent). In the Ravenswood-area 47th Ward, where Alderman Gene Schulter backed Fritchey, Quigley got 29.3 percent, to Fritchey’s 25.3. In the Wicker Park 32nd Ward, Fritchey’s base, Quigley beat him 26.5-24.2 percent.
O’Connor’s strategy was no strategy. He got 53.3 percent in his 40th Ward, and 27.6 percent in the 39th Ward. Grade: D. He knew he was a loser when he failed to get Daley’s endorsement and party slating. By finishing with an embarrassing 11.6 percent, O’Connor’s hope for higher office is extinguished.
Here are the “real” losers:
Todd Stroger: With Quigley going to Washington, Stroger will now face only Claypool in 2010.
Unions: What good is all that money, when unions can’t motivate their members?
Rahm Emanuel: The former congressman, now Obama chief-of-staff, won’t be able to reclaim his seat. Quigley won’t step aside.
Fritchey: Forget about running for Illinois attorney general in 2010. His credibility took a hit.
Ward committeemen: They couldn’t deliver a third of the vote in a 15 percent turnout.
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